Who will be number two?
Article Breakdown by Caracal
Nikkei: Who will be China's next premier? Key meeting may offer clues
Economic and diplomatic problems create bumps for Xi's ambitions
Tsukasa Hadano
November 9, 2021
China's 6th plenary session opens with Xi Jinping firmly in place, but the big question getting answered this week, who will the Chinese Communist Party select as the number two in command:
"The biggest question to be answered in this week's high-profile Chinese Communist Party meeting will likely not be who is being set up to succeed Xi Jinping, but who will be the next second in command."
Factions are rampant in the Chinese Communist Party, with the Communist Youth League on the back foot:
"Hu Chunhua, one of the four sitting vice premiers, is well qualified to become the next premier. But Hu is also regarded as a standard-bearer for the Communist Youth League, a faction that Xi has largely sidelined due to their solidarity."
Xi as the new sun god:
Many predict the next historical resolution will emphasize a new era shepherded by Xi. In fact, one Communist Party insider said it "will be devoted to glorifying Xi."
To become sun god, Xi has gone internal to the expense of being liked externally:
"attitudes toward China have worsened as a result of Beijing's "wolf warrior diplomacy," the aggressive stance adopted by diplomats under Xi. Because of the quest to become a global power, China is becoming increasingly unable to put forth a flexible response."
From "wolf warrior diplomacy" to the Belt and Road Initiative, external activities have been underperforming:
In addition, China's Belt and Road cross-border infrastructure initiative has been subject to accusations that it forces developing nations into debt traps.
Xi and the Chinese Communist Party have done all the easy stuff. A more challenging environment will make the next steps more difficult:
"The economy is slowing down, and diplomacy is not going smoothly," said a Chinese media insider. "Governance in the next year will become progressively difficult."
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Caracal is China Political Intelligence.
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